Trading on 01/29/08

Last night, I posted a chart of CPLA, and also mentioned:

FSLR looks a little similar, I will consider that too.

Well, CPLA didn't do anything, but FSLR did. My buy point was conservative at 186.



If anyone took AUXL from my pick this weekend, you did very well today:



I have no picks tonight because I won't be trading tomorrow due to the Fed meeting.

By the way, does anyone know how I place comments on the StockCharts.com charts like over at tradermike.net?

Good trading.

AUXL

AUXL from last night's post broke out today on heavy volume, and gave $1, which was all I was looking for:



There isn't much that interests me right now on either side. I may consider a nibble on this if it breaks resistance with heavy volume; just for $1 or $2.



FSLR looks a little similar, I will consider that too.

I prefer to stay mostly in cash for what will likely be a wild week.

One More Chart

One more chart to add to the watch list tomorrow:

Trading Plan For This Week

We did hit a temporary bottom last week from oversold conditions. The market could still go higher from its oversold state. I think we will retest last weeks lows at some point soon though.

I was watching CPHD last week, and it did breakout on good volume, but gave it all back. I am being very aggressive with my stops, and was stopped out at breakeven.

Here are a few stocks that I will be watching tomorrow.

OTEX is in a bearish channel. It could be a good short here, with stops at 31.



PDGI has found support at its 50 MA. I would consider buying when it breaks $43



Woud consider VIVO at $34.50



May buy AZZ at $35.20



MEE needs some time to work, but would consider it at $38



Since I think we will retest last weeks lows at some point, I will not hold these positions very long. Maybe just for $1 or $2 with tight stops. Will only consider breakouts if they are accompanied with volume, and are moving with the market.

Good trading.

IBD 100 Stocks Near Their Buy Point for 1/28/08

There are no stocks in the IBD 100 that have been highlighted in the Monday edition of Investors Business Daily as being near their buy points.

IBD Market Pulse: Market is in a correction.

Is This a Temporary Bottom?

So we finally got an oversold bounce, and what a bounce it was! There's no telling how oversold we can get in a bear market. But I do think today was capitulation. Anyone who got long yesterday took a lot of heat, and probably got stopped out. Only one way to go after that, and that is up. I think we'll see some momentum to the upside, but I don't think it will last long. But bear market rallies can be quit sharp. Here's an interesting fact from todays IBD:

"The nine biggest up days in Wall Street history all occurred during the bear market of 2000-02."

In looking for some clean charts to trade, I only saw one I liked. It is CPHD:



I may consider buying this stock as it breaks $32.50. I would only look for a couple of points. Otherwise, I want to stay in cash and look to get positioned for what I suspect could be another leg down.

Wild Ride

What a ride today. My inverse ETF positions (TWM,DXD) were stopped out for a profit after aggressively moving my stops this morning. I am only long bonds via TLT, which had a technical breakout this morning, but am keeping stops tight. At this point, my plan is to step aside until the market settles a bit, because things could be very choppy. A sharp bear market rally is in order, but so many charts are beaten up right now. There are very few that have held up, so I have no charts to post tonight. However, I do like how HWAY held up. I would buy it over 70 for a couple of points IF the market rallies with it.

Right now, capital preservation is key until the market finds its way. Good luck.

Brutal

Unless you're short the former leaders, cash is the best place to be right now. Today was simply brutal. It's clear that the institutions want out.

Of the stocks I listed yesterday as potential short term long plays, three broke out and moved higher. They were SONO, APOL and GENZ. But you would have needed to have taken profits quickly, and with the market as it was today, going long was a trap. I also listed SLB as a short, which was down 3.41% today, but thats nothing compared to the bleeding in the market today.

The market could turn around, and believe it or not, there are some stocks holding up well. So if the market does begin to turn, keep an eye on these stocks, as they are showing strength:

GILD, HUM, GENZ, SONO, HWAY, MATK, MCF, PRXL

The week has been wild, and I think it will probably stay that way. I don't see many good short setups right now, but I think any rally would be shortable. Good trading.

Mid-Week Plan

Since the beginning of the year, I have been going through about 200-300 charts a night, looking for some good stocks to watch. I find this has really helped to get a better idea of what’s going on, and have been happy with some of the picks I’ve made so far, even if I haven’t taken some.

For example, on Sunday I posted: “I like CHL when it moves out of its symmetrical triangle at 90. Would short it if closes beneath it.”

I should have stuck with that analysis; I would have made some money today with that trade. I also posted that I liked FSLR, ABB and SPWR as swing shorts. Those would have all paid well. Of course, calling shorts in this market isn’t too hard, but I am going to play more of these calls. Like SLB, which looks like a good short here.

It seems we still have lower to go, but we should see some bounces before then. If we see a bounce this week, I will be all over these:

APOL, GENZ, HUMM, CHTT, SONO, IVGN, AZZ, GMCR

I am only looking for a couple of points on these trades, and don’t plan to hold for more than a day or two. I want to see these stocks break out of consolidation with high volume before I will consider them.

I will also be watching SPN, TNE, CZZ and CAA for day trade opportunities.

Currently, I am long TLT and plan to add to double-inverse ETF positions on every bounce (TWM, DXD) and get long QID.

Yesterdays Stock Picks Do Well

Yesterday was the first time I listed all the stocks I would be watching going into the next trading day. I had some winners. Remember, I was only looked for a couple of points.

MOS kicked a$$!



Made some money with MON



hummm...not bad



I passed on CHTT, but may try again tomorrow. I am no longer bullish on CHL, but not going to short it either. Will pass.

Todays volume was lower than Friday. If you're an IBD fan, then you know today does not count as a follow through. Trade safe.

EDIT: Some of the stocks I'll be watching on Tuesday: GMCR, CHTT, APOL, KWK, CZZ

Trade Ideas

I am going to start posting the trades I am considering for the next trading week. Maybe at the end of the week, I will post what I took.

The market should attempt a rally early this week, but that’s certainly not a sure thing. These are stocks I plan to watch and buy on strength. These will be short term trades. I'm only looking for a couple of points. Just because they are posted here doesn’t mean I will buy them. Conditions have to be met, and even then, I may pass.

Short term trade ideas, in no particular order:


I like GMCR once it breaks 42 with volume:



I like MON once it breaks 125 with volume:



I like MOS once it breaks 100 with volume:



I like CHL when it moves out of its symmetrical triangle at 90. Would short it if closes beneath it.



I like AET once it breaks 60 with volume:



I like CHTT once it breaks 78.25 with volume:



I like HUM once it at 86.30 with volume:



Will also consider GGB and HOLX.

Day trades ideas:

Will be watching volume on SPN, SONO and TNE

Long term ideas:

I am watching TLT, and would consider shorting MA, ABB, NDAQ, GOOG and SPWR

Again, I won't be taking all of these positions, or even any. This is what I will be watching early this week.

Good trading!

IBD 100 Stocks Near Their Buy Point for 1/14/08

There are no stocks in the IBD 100 that have been highlighted in the Monday edition of Investors Business Daily as being near their buy points.

Watch List

Will be looking at these stocks for short term trade opportunities:

CHL, DE, DLB, HDB, SID

Stock List for Oversold Rally

I’ve decided to keep this site going, but it is going to be much different and updated much more frequently, with useful information for momentum and breakout traders. The IBD blackbox selections will also be back, and much more. I will be collaborating with others, so it should be good. I’m excited about it, but it won’t be coming soon enough. Hopefully in a few weeks, you’ll see some great changes….including a new URL.

Now onto trading: I’ve had four trades so far this year. A swing trade in CMED last week for +$2, and day traded IRIS today for +$1.30. My two other trades were in SID and MA last week for breakeven.

In looking at charts last week, so many of them were exhibiting symmetrical triangles; it was obvious the market was going to move big on way or another, and Friday it did. Looking at the charts today, they look so beautiful, so textbook. I am tempted to swing short, but we could see an oversold rally before we go much lower. If we see strength tomorrow, I will be looking for opportunities to day trade these stocks:

CHL, CTRP, EDU, FTI, GILD, ICLR, KNDL, MBT, MOS, SLT, XTO

As for swing short candidates, there are many to consider. I would like to see a rally first. I will especially be watching FSLR, GOOG and BIDU.