Afraid to Trade

Not much to report during this choppy week. I made two trades; lost nearly $2 in AAPL on Monday, and made $2 in BIDU on Thursday. So I pretty much broke even for the week. One reason I didn't trade much this week was because of the FOMC meeting, and the volatility that came with it. But the other reason is that I haven’t been in the right frame of mind lately. I am definitely in the afraid-to-trade mode right now. I certainly planned on being more active when I started this blog, and I think I will be as soon as I feel more comfortable trading.

I plan to have a post in the next day or two discussing what I am doing to get myself in the right frame of mind for trading. You might find it interesting. I know I am interested to see if it helps.

The real question about the markets right now is: Are the markets forming a double top or a double bottom? I may stand aside and watch the action until a clearer picture develops.

IBD 100 Stocks Near Their Buy Point for 6/25/07

Another weekend and another list of stocks in the IBD 100 that have been highlighted in Investors Business Daily as being near their buy point. These are taken from the Monday edition of IBD, and can be useful for both swing and day traders, as these stocks can be active during the Monday session.

There are all weekly charts.

The first one is #19 in the IBD 100, HURN.



The next one is #26, RIMM:



The last one is #49 in the IBD 100, MTW:



Good trading.

Painful Trading Week

I didn’t have a good week trading and finished down for the week. In my last post, I lamented about not swing trading this market, and the opportunities I have missed. Well, I decided to make a couple of swing trades this week; the results weren’t good.

The first swing trade was RSH, which I bought on a breakout on Monday. I have been watching this one for awhile. I was up at the close on Monday, but I could see it selling off after hours. They sold off due to a disappointing report by Best Buy. I cut it loose on Tuesday for a painful loss.

I also tried a swing trade in CROX, a Zanger pick. I entered a swing trade on Wednesday morning at $46.23, using a loose volatility stop. It moved up over $1, and I considered taking profits, but didn’t. The stock then sold off with the rest of the market on Thursday, and I capitulated, selling near the low of the day. You can guess what the stock did on Friday. Yep, it rallied.

I was also stopped out of QQQQ after I moved my stop up to secure $1 gain, but it didnt cover my losses.

In hindsight, I chose to swing trade at a bad time. The market was a little overbought going into the week, and volatility has been increasing. I did learn something else, and that is that I don't have the stomach for losses. I like to take a quick profit and end the day in cash. This is not how millions are made, but it does suit me best.

By the way, here are some interesting statistics regarding the markets performance in pre-election years, which I read at the free weekend newsletter over at Amateur-Investor.net:

For those that have been long time readers of this newsletter you know that since 1943 the Dow has always had a positive return the year prior to a Presidential Election Year….For those years prior to a Presidential Election Year the 1st and 2nd Quarters have typically performed the best on average while the 3rd and 4th Quarters haven't performed nearly as well. If this trend continues in 2007 then the Dow's performance in the 3rd and 4th Quarters may not be as good as what we have seen in the 2nd Quarter which is currently up 8%.

TNH

Check out TNH; up over $16 in just three days.


I day traded this baby for a small gain last week. Am I kicking myself for not swing trading it? Yes. Am I kicking myself for not swing trading much at all this summer? Yes too. I know I am not the only one. I really didn't expect stocks to be so strong this summer.

By the way, this stock along with CF which has also broke out strong, were both Zanger picks.

I'm not sure if I'll suddenly start swing trading now, but there are definitely leaders in this market.

IBD 100 Stocks Near Their Buy Point

Every weekend, I like to post the stocks in the IBD 100 that Investors Business Daily has highlighted in their Monday edition as being near a buy point. I like to watch these on Monday morning, as they can be frisky. There are two selections this week:

(These are weekly charts)

#25 in the IBD 100 is RIMM.




The other is #55, CRDN.

TraderMike Interview

Here is a pretty good interview with the man himself, TraderMike. Not quite as informative as his blog, but interesting nonetheless.

Just Buy the Dips

I placed a Buy Stop + TTO order for TNH last night, really not expecting it to move today. It did, and I am already out +$2 and change; the whole trade automated. I have been travelling for my job these last two days, so I haven’t been able to watch the market during the day, which might be a good thing. I am still steaming over screwing up what would have been two profitable trades earlier this week. At least with a Stop+ TTO order, I can’t screw it up (well, actually I can).

I am still in QQQQ, even though my target has been hit. I may let it ride.

I have been hesitant to swing trade going into the summer, but this bull can’t be stopped. With month end and quarter end approaching, we could go higher. It seems all a person needs to know is this: When the market pulls back in a bull market, it's a buying opportunity. When the market pulls back in a bear market, it's a selling opportunity. Booyah!

Time Out

I didn't trade well these last two days. I made a small profit in TASR on Monday. Because of market choppiness, I decided to buy pullbacks in stocks that were moving. I used limit orders to take positions in RIMM yesterday, and CF today. But both times, I was immediately out of the position for small losses after making mistakes when placing my stops. I'm not even sure what I did wrong when placing the CF stop this morning, but I knew that the best thing for me to do was to stop trading and walk away. I know how to place a stop, so there is some reason I made two mistakes in a row. It's hard enough to get an edge in the market when you're doing everything right, but when you're working against yourself, it's impossible to win. So I will take a cooler until I'm not so distracted. This is after all real money I'm using, and I don't want to lose it by making dumb mistakes. Besides, the market isn't looking too good right now. Cash may be a good place to be for awhile.

I'm still in my QQQQ position, since my target wasn't hit, but it isn't looking good right now. I may have to cut it loose early while I have a proft. Good luck out there.

Weekend Update

I plan to have a post every weekend that reveals the IBD 100 stocks that are highlighted as being near their buy point in the Monday edition of IBD, but there were no selections in this week's edition.

The market did bounce on Friday as I predicted in my last post, but I think nearly everyone knew that was coming. I took a position in QQQQ during its first pullback on Friday morning, which I am still holding; looking to make $1 or $2. I passed on what would have been a great dummy trade in MA on Friday. For the coming week, I am still considering a swing in GOOG. Also considering RIMM, which held up fairly well last week.

I have read some good cases for a move higher in the markets, and good cases made for a move lower. The market tends to humble the majority, so let’s see if a consensus forms this week. It should be an interesting week; good luck.

Oversold Bounce?

The momentum in the markets appears to to the downside. However, the market is now oversold and the indexes are approaching their 50-Day MA’s. We could get an oversold bounce.

Saxo Bank is predicting a 10-15% correction in the US markets within the next two months. They have some very informative trading newsletters, which are free. I like Wakeup Call, which is very good.

Anyway, my plan at the moment is to catch an oversold bounce in the markets, then go short. Of course, this "plan" is subject to change at any moment.

Chopped Up

I made two day trades. The good news was, they were stocks that moved. The bad news is, I lost money. I traded like a chump. I was -$1 on TNH and b/e on AMZN. I was in money early on both trades. TNH reversed, took me out, and then proceeded to march higher for the rest of the day. I moved my stop to b/e a little early on AMZN and was stopped out, then it too moved higher for the rest of the day. I should have made money in both trades.

I passed on a GOOG swing trade, which was highlighted in the Zanger Report newsletter last night. It broke out and hit an all time high, finishing strong. I may look to buy pullbacks in this stock for a swing trade.

While traveling last week, I re-read some of The New Market Wizards by Jack Schwager. If you are not familiar with this book, Schwager interviews a number of very successful traders, and asks them to share their insights and methods. Towards the end of the book, Schwager lists some principles that nearly all of these successful traders have. I found this one interesting, as it is something I have been thinking of lately as I develop a trading method suited for my own personality and schedule.

Match the Trading Method To Your Personality

It is critical to choose a method that is consistent with or own personality and comfort level. If you cant stand to give back significant profits, then a long-term trend-following approach – even a very good one – will be a disaster, because you will never be able to follow it. If you don’t want to watch the quote screen all day (or can’t), don’t try a day-trading method. If you can’t stand the emotional strain of making trading decisions, then try to develop a mechanical system for trading the markets. The approach you use must be right for you; it must feel comfortable.

If you haven’t read this book, I highly recommend it.